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Understanding Accurate Cricket Predictions

By Staff Writer
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Cricket is one of the most popular sports, with millions of spectators all over the world. A great portion of those likes to gamble on matches and follow cricket predictions. But how accurate are the predictions, and how are they made?

How Are Accurate Cricket Predictions Calculated?

Before you understand cricket predictions, it’s important to better understand cricket odds, which are calculated differently from probability. To make the most money when betting, you need to bet on those outcomes with better odds. That is, a higher probability of happening. 

Accurate cricket predictions are calculated using a mathematical algorithm that has proven to be true for the most part. For example, if you wanted to know the prediction for today’s match, you would need to feed the formula all the variables it requires and you would have the answer. The specific algorithm used changes based on different predictors, but the basic calculation is known as WASP.

WASP

Based on extensive mathematical research from the University of Canterbury (New Zealand) in the 2010s, this is the most widely used algorithm used to calculate cricket match predictions. WASP stands for Winning and Score Predictor. Without getting into the complex mathematics of the algorithm, the following is the simplest explanation of WASP:

The program aggregates all data from past matches and calculates the odds of runs and wickets. Based on the results of these calculations, the probability of total runs and even winning can be worked out.

Factors Taken Into Consideration When Making Cricket Predictions

You may be wondering what kind of data is collected when making predictions about cricket matches. Not only are the results recorded (i.e. runs, wickets, wins, losses, etc.), various other factors that impact the match are part of the algorithm. Here are a few factors that make up part of the logic of a typical cricket predictor:

    • Pitch: You probably already know that there are different types of cricket pitches. Naturally, the probability of a different outcome changes depending on the pitch when combined with other factors.
    • Weather: One of the biggest factors to impact cricket predictions is the weather. Websites that operate in this field pride themselves on extensive research and analysis of weather forecasts that are used to calculate predictions more accurately.
  • Boundary Size: The size of the field on which a cricket match is played varies greatly. For example, the largest boundary is on the cricket ground in Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad, India. As such, it contributes a great deal to the predictable outcomes during a match. Cricket predictors use this information as part of their complex algorithm.
  • Home and Away Teams: Needless to say, different teams playing each other will produce different odds. Not only that, but the psychological state of the players when they are playing on their home grounds is different than when they are away. Their psychological state heavily influences how the match proceeds and the probability of a win.
  • Match Starters: The players that start in the match are a well-guarded secret that is not revealed until the match has started and the bets have already been placed. However, professional cricket predictors are able to analyze historical data and make educated assumptions on who might be the match starters. The beginning of the match can drastically change the outcome, so this factor is a critical part of the algorithm.
  • Key Players: Finally, the key players in both teams are considered. Some have more impact on the final outcomes and others do not factor into cricket predictions as much. The best cricket predictor websites analyze the top performers and hypothesize on how well they will play.

Of course, there are many more factors and variables that are included in the logic of a cricket predictor algorithm, but the aforementioned factors are more commonly used.In order to predict outcomes more precisely, algorithms need to take into account more and more data.

Final Thoughts

If you don’t want to bother yourself with the mathematics of it all, it’s best to base your bets on a reliable predictor. The best cricket prediction website I’ve found online is thetopbookies.com. I’ve found that their calculations are more accurate when compared to other websites.  

Staff Writer